Democrats might face a major setback in New Hampshire, as early polling indicates that Republicans could secure a Senate seat in the traditionally blue state.

A newly released poll shows that former Republican Governor Chris Sununu leads Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas (D-NH) by a significant margin of 53% to 44% in a hypothetical 2026 Senate race. Although neither Sununu nor Pappas has officially announced their candidacy, both are expected to run. The current numbers suggest an early advantage for the GOP in a state that has typically leaned Democratic, signaling a serious warning for Democrats as they approach a critical election year.

According to Quantus Insights, Sununu’s early lead is fueled by overwhelming Republican support (94%), a strong advantage among independents (52% to 44%), and a notable edge with male voters (59% to 39%).

Even more concerning for Democrats, he is performing well with women voters, capturing 48% of the vote. Another key factor in Sununu’s strength is his appeal to non-college-educated voters, where he enjoys a 58% lead.

This demographic has increasingly influenced New Hampshire elections, especially in working-class areas that have shifted to the right in recent years.

The numbers indicate a growing trend of Republican gains in New Hampshire. While former President Joe Biden won the state by over seven points in 2020, President Donald Trump narrowed that margin to just 2.8 points against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in 2024.

If this trend persists, it could pose significant challenges for Democrats seeking to regain a Senate majority.

Despite Sununu’s early advantage, Democrats remain in contention, however. Pappas is a well-known figure in New Hampshire politics, having secured multiple terms in the state’s First Congressional District—a swing seat that frequently changes party hands.

However, he faces significant challenges.

The national mood in 2026 is uncertain, and President Trump currently holds a 43.8% approval rating in New Hampshire, with 48.5% disapproval. While Trump enjoys strong backing among Republicans (83% approval), his standing among independents is much weaker, with only 37% approval and 54% disapproval—a crucial voting bloc.