A recent Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report anticipates that China’s nuclear arsenal will double to 1,000 warheads within the next five years. The agency’s 2020 assessment projected China would reach 400 warheads by the end of the decade, especially in the face of weak leadership; however, the DIA now confirms China has already amassed 500 warheads, with expectations to surpass 1,000 by 2030.

The report states, “China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history,” though its capabilities remain below those of the United States or Russia.

Over the weekend, China executed another “combat control” operation near Taiwan as Beijing threatened to respond to the U.S.’s recent $2 billion arms agreement with Taiwan, which included an advanced air defense system used in Ukraine. Taiwan’s defense ministry detected 19 Chinese aircraft, including Su-30 fighter jets, conducting a “joint combat readiness patrol” around the island, alongside Chinese naval forces.

These findings are in line with the Pentagon’s 2023 report on China’s military capabilities. Russia currently has approximately 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and an additional 2,000 non-strategic warheads. Following China in nuclear capabilities are France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.

Compared to a decade ago, “current efforts dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity,” the report notes. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is driving this modernization under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, as China’s competition for global influence with the U.S. intensifies. Despite China’s historical commitment to a non-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy and calls for similar commitments from other nuclear powers, the report suggests Chinese strategists may be re-evaluating their belief that nuclear war is uncontrollable.

The DIA report warns that China could consider nuclear use if a conflict over Taiwan posed an existential threat to the Communist Party. Furthermore, the PLA is reportedly developing low-yield nuclear warheads for potential “proportional” responses. The report adds, “Coupled with PLA officers downplaying the risks of imperfect information management during crises, inexperience managing nuclear crises, and their perceptions that they can elicit intended adversary responses while maintaining sufficient battlefield awareness, Beijing may accept greater risks as its nuclear doctrine and capabilities mature.”

The Pentagon is currently assessing how to prepare for 2027, the year Chinese leaders have indicated their military should be capable of invading Taiwan.

Elsewhere, Iran’s uranium enrichment continues at an accelerated rate, though the report affirms Tehran likely has not achieved nuclear weapon capability. Meanwhile, North Korea’s support of Russia in Ukraine has prompted concerns that Moscow may be aiding North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.