Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris in four out of five key swing states, according to one of the first polls conducted since President Joe Biden exited the race.
Harris is trailing Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania but is neck and neck with Trump in Wisconsin.
The poll reveals Trump ahead of Harris with 49 to 44 percent in Arizona, 48 to 46 percent in Georgia, 46 to 45 percent in Michigan, and 48 to 46 percent in Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Trump and Harris are tied at 47 percent. This poll was conducted between July 22 and 23, shortly after Biden announced he was dropping out of the race.
The survey sample size included 800 voters in three of the five swing states, with Pennsylvania having 850 voters and Wisconsin 845. The margin of error was +/- 3.4 percent for the states with 800 voters and +/- 3.3 percent for the latter two.
Economic concerns and immigration were the top issues in these states, with Trump polling better on these topics compared to Joe Biden. Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Harris experienced a slight increase in support compared to Biden, reflecting similar levels to Biden’s numbers in March against Trump. Young voters, who had been drifting away from Biden, particularly over issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict, seem to be shifting their support back to Harris.
“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month,” Kimball added. According to the Real Clear Polling average, Trump leads Harris nationally by just under two points.