A recent Iowa Poll by the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom reveals that former President Donald Trump maintains a lead among likely Republican caucusgoers for the 2024 Iowa caucuses.

48% of respondents picked Trump as their first choice for president, a slight dip from 51% in December. Despite the decrease, Trump is positioned for a potential record victory margin in a contested Republican Iowa caucus.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley secured second place with 20% support, surpassing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had 16%.

Haley gained four points while DeSantis lost three, and both are vying for the 25% of Iowans who remain open to persuasion. The poll showed biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy in fourth place with 8% support, nearly double his December figures, while no other candidates scored double digits.

Though Trump’s lead has narrowed, 82% of his supporters are firmly committed, compared to 63% for Haley and 64% for DeSantis. Pollster J. Ann Selzer noted that Haley’s support seems stronger in the poll than it might appear on caucus night, drawing parallels to the 2016 Iowa caucus where Texas Sen. Ted Cruz emerged victorious despite trailing in earlier polls.

The final poll precedes the high-stakes caucus, potentially impacted by severe weather. Conducted from Jan. 7-12, the poll included 705 likely Republican caucusgoers and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.