If the presidential election were held tomorrow, it’s likely that former President Donald Trump would once again become President Donald Trump, as evidenced by a shocking new survey from The New York Times and Siena College.
The poll of registered voters found that Trump is ahead of Biden by four to 10 points in five critical swing states, losing only Wisconsin to the current commander-in-chief and only by 2 points. Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Across the six battlegrounds—all of which Biden carried in 2020—the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent.
Conservative Brief also noted that the survey contains additional surprises:
The survey results reveal a wide range of Biden’s shortcomings, and worries about the president’s aging and mental capacity are just the beginning. Sixty-two percent of respondents felt that Mr. Biden lacked the “mental sharpness” necessary to be an effective leader.
The poll also shows how much the coalition of different races and generations that supported Biden in his election is eroding. Now, there is much more competition among the demographic groups that supported Biden by wide margins in 2020 because two-thirds of voters believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
Biden’s lead among Hispanic voters is in the single digits; his advantage in urban areas is half of Trump’s edge in rural areas; and he is only slightly preferred by voters under thirty.
Long a pillar of support for Democrats and Biden, black voters are now giving Trump 22 percent of the vote in these states, a percentage never before seen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
“The Outlaws” podcast co-host Darvio Morrow took to the X platform to note that, according to the polling data, Trump got 22 percent of the black vote in the poll.
“Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times,” he quoted the Times as saying.
“In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six,” the Times added.
A BRUTAL poll for Biden. “Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”
“In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial… pic.twitter.com/BYaJvfR5Ir
— Darvio Morrow (@DTheKingpin) November 5, 2023
“A BRUTAL poll for Biden,” Morrow wrote in the post. “You’d have to go back to Richard Nixon in 1960 to see the last time a National Republican got anywhere close to those numbers with Black voters. Brutal, brutal poll. And if Team Trump are serious about locking these numbers in and making them stick, put policy on the table for Black voters and make sure you go out and campaign for every single Black vote.”
