Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign believes that the former president is not only poised to win the GOP nomination but will do so in short order.
According to Reuters, the campaign predicted that Trump would wrap up his party’s nomination by March, months earlier than he did in 2016 with a field that was even more crowded.
The team “projects he could formally clinch the Republican presidential nomination by March 19, given his lead in polls in the early voting states, a senior campaign official said on Monday,” Reuters reported.
The campaign is confident that Trump is poised to secure 1,478 delegates by the time of the Republican National Convention in July, which would be more than sufficient to win a majority of the total 2,429 delegates that will determine the party’s nominee. In 2016, Trump didn’t manage to secure enough delegates until May, when he was running a close race against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
“Trump holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary ahead of the 2024 White House race. A Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll completed last week showed 61% of self-identified Republicans said they would vote for the former president in the primary,” Reuters reported.
Trump has been leading in every national poll for months and has taken a lead over President Joe Biden in several more recent surveys.
In early November, polls from The New York Times/Siena College suggested that Trump held a lead in four out of the six swing states, with additional indicators of Biden’s electoral vulnerability emerging swiftly as the president’s lead over Trump in head-to-head matchups started to diminish.
In the latest polls conducted this month by 13 different pollsters, Biden’s standing has decreased in all but two, compared to their earlier surveys.
Furthermore, Trump is gaining momentum, with the majority of the movement coming from voters switching from Biden to Trump, even if they are still undecided.
At this juncture, Trump commands a larger vote share than at any other time in the past year, according to the average national poll.
Impressively, state-level data aligns with the trend. Aside from the poll conducted by the New York Times/Siena, recent surveys over the past several days indicate that Trump is leading by 8 points in Arizona and 5 points in Michigan.
Several factors, such as the rise of independent and third-party candidates capable of drawing votes away from both Biden and Trump, the initiation of conflict in the Middle East, and Biden’s recent decline and political challenges nearly 11 months before Election Day, suggest that Biden is experiencing a loss of support both against Trump and among reliable Democratic constituencies.
