Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose party has a supermajority in the state legislature, has made history of sorts.
Under his and their leadership, the Golden State has not only shed hundreds of thousands of residents, but is not projected to add more residents than it loses at least until 2060, a new analysis shows.
“The forecasts released by the California Department of Finance show the Golden State’s population in 2060 is estimated to be 39.51 million people, which is lower than the 39.52 residents who lived there in 2020. Just under 39 million people live today in California, the country’s most populated state,” Fox News reported.
A mere three years ago, predictions indicated that California’s population in 2060 would reach approximately 45 million. However, a few years prior to that, the projection was even higher, surpassing 50 million, hinting at the anticipation of a significant population boom.
In contrast, the most recent projections indicate that the Golden State will have around 40 million residents by 2050, showcasing a stunning decline compared to the earlier forecasts from 2007, which predicted 59.5 million residents.
The substantial difference between these two figures, amounting to 19.5 million people, is equivalent to the entire population of New York state, Fox News noted.
The outlet added:
California saw its first-ever population decline in 2020, when the state imposed rigid lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, Californians continue to leave in droves, moving their homes and businesses to other parts of the country and creating problems for their former state.
From January 2020 to July 2022, the state lost well over half a million people, with the number of residents leaving surpassing those moving in by almost 700,000. The U-Haul Growth Index, which measured more than 2 million one-way trips last year, found that California ranked last on the index as demand for trucks out of the Golden State spiked.
Demographers note that such a mass exodus can have profound impacts on the future, as individuals who relocate not only take themselves but also their children, thus influencing demographic trends over time.
And their tax money.
“California’s population decline is having real consequences. In 2021, the state lost a House seat for the first time since achieving statehood in 1850. If the population continues to decline, another House seat could be at risk,” Fox News noted.
Another consequence of a reduced population could be the erosion of California’s tax base, which is already burdened with one of the highest tax rates in the nation. With the country’s highest top income tax rate of 13.3%, along with other significant taxes, this decline in population may further strain the state’s tax revenues amid large and growing multi-billion dollar budget deficit.
In May, Newsom revealed that the state’s budget deficit had swollen to approximately $32 billion, surpassing his initial estimate from January by around $10 billion. The increase in the deficit was partially attributed to lower-than-expected tax revenue during the period.
