Pollsters continue to show that Vice President Kamala Harris has hit a ceiling among voters, who are frustrated with her vague promises and the simplistic campaign narrative that she is the best choice simply because she isn’t President Joe Biden.
Gallup confirmed this trend on Wednesday, revealing new data indicating a rise in the number of Americans with unfavorable views of Harris, while former President Donald Trump is gaining favor.
Although both candidates remain generally unpopular, Harris has seen a 5% drop in her favorability ratings, while Trump’s ratings have increased by 5%. The survey, which sampled 1,000 likely voters, has a margin of error of ±2.5%, making these shifts statistically significant.
Gallup poll: Favorability Ratings (shift from August)
Donald Trump
Favorable: 46% (+5)
Unfavorable: 53% (-2)Kamala Harris
Favorable: 44% (-3)
Unfavorable: 54% (+5)
——
Among independents
Trump: 44-53 (net: -9)
Harris: 35-60 (-25)#44 (2.5/3.0) | n=1,007 A | 9/3-15… pic.twitter.com/bbBc8Hp0j4
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 18, 2024
Harris has seen a substantial drop in support among independent voters, with her favorability among this group plummeting by 25% in just one month. Currently, only 35% of unaffiliated voters view Harris favorably, compared to 44% for Trump.
This dramatic decline came less than a month after Harris was officially nominated by the Democratic Party, ending the initial “honeymoon” period that analysts had hoped would sustain a polling boost. Unfortunately, this optimism has not materialized for her supporters.
Despite outspending Trump, Harris has faced tough competition in crucial battleground states. Recently, Trump has gained a slight lead in Pennsylvania, a key state that could influence the election outcome. Additionally, Trump held a 1% advantage in Wisconsin last month, a state that Biden won in 2020.
Even when Harris leads, such as in traditionally blue Virginia, her lead is within the margin of error.
Renowned election forecaster Nate Silver estimated last month that Trump has a 53.1% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 46.6%. In September, Silver’s projections for Trump’s chances of victory ranged from 55% to 62%.
As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, new data from pollster AtlasIntel, known for its accuracy in the 2020 election, is drawing significant attention. CEO Andrei Roman recently disclosed that Trump has a massive 70% chance of winning, according to their latest figures.
In a discussion with AtlasIntel’s Head of US Coverage, Pedro Azevedo, Roman highlighted that Trump’s lead has strengthened even amid the highly charged political climate.
