A seasoned campaign adviser and strategist put former President Donald Trump in the driver’s seat heading into next year’s election but cautioned that despite President Joe Biden’s poor performance on the border, the economy, and foreign policy, he’s not a shoo-in to lose.

In a column for RealClearPolitics, veteran political consultant Dr. Louis Perron, author of the upcoming book, “Beat the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections,” writes that Trump isn’t a lock to win the White House, despite all of the things that have gone wrong on Biden’s watch.

“Elections with an incumbent are foremost a referendum on the incumbent. As two-thirds of Americans think that their country is headed in the wrong direction and more than half of voters tell pollsters that they disapprove of the job President Joe Biden is doing, the 2024 election is the Republicans’ to lose,” Perron begins.

But he notes that, in his book, he warns “candidates not to rely solely on the weaknesses, failures, and even scandals of an incumbent government. They are often not enough to bring down an incumbent government.”

Perron went on to say that is a problem the former president.

Republicans’ “likely nominee, Donald Trump, is as disliked as Joe Biden, and worse, he’s not a new commodity as challengers otherwise often are. Most people have made up their minds about him, and it’s much more difficult to change public opinion than to define it in the first place,” he wrote. “I always tell my clients that the best and only starting point for effective campaign planning is brutal honesty. The reality is that being out on bail in four jurisdictions, Donald Trump is a deeply flawed general election candidate.”

Perron argued that the results of next year’s presidential election will come down “to the so-called double haters, those who have an unfavorable opinion about both Trump and Biden.” If the focus remains on Biden, then Trump is going to be victorious, the analyst said, adding that the opposite will be true if Trump remains more in the spotlight.

If another global war doesn’t break out, he said,

“the decision issue will be, as always, the economy.” And it is here where Trump could gain the advantage, Perron believes.

“Voters used to credit Trump with economic competence, so there is something to work with. During the first three years of Donald Trump in the White House, the U.S. economy did remarkably well. Republicans should take this record as a basis to actively renew and update their credibility on the economy. There has to be more in store to get out and vote for than the usual hackneyed claims of lower taxes and less bureaucracy,” he writes.

In conclusion, he advised Republicans to do their “homework,” adding, “if they don’t take drastic action now, they might blow it (again).”