A recent Michigan general election poll reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a slight lead over President Joe Biden. In a direct matchup, Trump has 48.2 percent of the vote compared to Biden’s 47.6 percent, with 4.2 percent of voters undecided.
When third-party candidates are factored in, Trump’s lead widens marginally. Trump garners 46.3 percent of the vote, while Biden receives 45.1 percent. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerges as the most favored third-party candidate, securing 3.3 percent of the vote. The poll, conducted on June 3 among 697 likely voters, has a margin of error of 6.9 percent.
This poll indicates a tightening race compared to the previous survey conducted on May 20-21, 2024. At that time, Trump had a wider lead of 2 percent. The latest poll, conducted after Trump’s conviction, shows Biden performing slightly better among Democrats, with 95 percent support compared to Trump’s 93 percent among Republicans. Trump’s support among Democrats has decreased from 9 percent to 4 percent, while Biden’s support among Republicans has increased from 4 percent to 5 percent. Among Independents, Trump leads with 47 percent compared to Biden’s 40 percent.
📊 MICHIGAN GE: @MIRSnews
🟥 Trump: 48.2%
🟦 Biden: 47.6%
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🟥 Trump: 46.3%
🟦 Biden: 45.1%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3.3%
🟨 West: 1.1%
🟩 Stein: 0.5%
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Senate
🟦 Slotkin: 36%
🟥 Rogers: 33%
⬜ Undecided: 31%
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Mitchell Research | 6/3 | 697 LV | ±6.9%https://t.co/bUIhdX2gUB… pic.twitter.com/3kqbknoPzR— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 5, 2024
Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc., which conducted the poll, commented on the significance of the findings and the impact of Trump’s recent convictions.
“Trump’s lead has narrowed from two percent to point six percent since our last survey conducted May 20-21, 2024, before Trump’s conviction. In the May 2024 survey Trump had solidified his base better than Biden but post-conviction, Biden is doing slightly better with Democrats (95 percent) than Trump has with Republicans (93 percent).” Mitchell pointed out.
Michigan’s role in the upcoming election could be crucial for Trump’s potential victory in November. According to Real Clear Politics polling averages, Trump currently leads outside the margin of error in key swing states such as Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida. Additionally, Trump has a significant lead in Nevada, a state that has not voted Republican since 2004 when George W. Bush was re-elected.
If Trump secures victories in these states, he would need to win only one of the three critical states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin—to achieve an electoral victory. Currently, Trump holds a slight edge over Biden in all three of these states, although the results are within the margin of error in most polls. Trump won these states in 2016 but lost them in 2020.
