Oregon Governor Race Has Been Moved From ‘Likely’ To ‘Lean’ Democrat, Which Signals Potential For GOP Victory

Oregon Governor Race Has Been Moved From ‘Likely’ To ‘Lean’ Democrat, Which Signals Potential For GOP Victory

Is it possible that the liberal lunacy that has dominated the blue state of Oregon is wearing thin on residents?

Yes, if a new political assessment for the governor’s race is correct.

According to the Cook Political Report, the analytical firm recently shifted the governor’s race from “likely Democrat” to “leans Democrat,” indicating a tougher-than-expected race as well as an opportunity for a Republican actually to win for the first time in four decades.

The Daily Wire reports:

The site noted that if a third-party candidate, in this case, unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson, a longtime moderate state senator, is “well-funded,” this can give the minority party a chance to see success.

Political analysis site FiveThirtyEight also shows Oregon as a “lean D” state for the governor’s race, giving former Oregon House Minority Leader Republican Christine Drazan a 31% chance of victory as of Wednesday.

The Cook report discussed the recent non-partisan poll by Nelson Research, which was conducted in late May and revealed that Drazan was in the lead with nearly 30% of likely voters saying they would elect her. Democratic candidate and former speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives Tina Kotek received around 27.5% support in the poll, and Johnson received around 19.4%.

“Our momentum is unmistakable, Christine Drazan is ready to flip Oregon this November,” said John Burke, Drazan’s communications director, in a statement to The Daily Wire. “Oregonians from all walks of life are stepping up and calling for change. Unlike Tina Kotek and Betsy Johnson, Christine is ready to deliver for them.”

poll that was paid for by Johnson’s campaign, meanwhile, showed Kotek leading with Johnson coming in second place and Drazan trailing in last place.

But a separate survey that was funded by Republicans showed Drazan at 32.4 percent and Kotek at 31.4 percent.

Dr. Jim Moore, a psephologist who studies voter habits during elections and is a professor at Pacific University in Oregon, told the outlet that polling has revealed “a three-way race” since the primary election.

“Cook, which is good on polls but not that good on history and context in individual states, is right to move the race into a more competitive category,” Moore added, saying the race is still Kotek’s to lose.

He went on to say that though Democrats aren’t elected by landslides in Oregon, “Republicans have a real hard time getting more than 40–45% of the vote.”

There are other signs that Oregon’s politics may be shifting towards the moderate right.

According to a DHM Research poll in May, just 8 percent of Oregonians believed that the state was heading in the right direction. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the figure was 38 percent.


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