NBC's Election Data Guru Has Good News For Trump

NBC's Election Data Guru Has Good News For Trump


On Wednesday, NBC News’ national political correspondent Steve Kornacki shared some promising news for the GOP in Pennsylvania. Kornacki revealed that former President Donald Trump is gaining popularity among Hispanic voters as the general election approaches in November.

During his appearance on the network, the data expert pointed out that there has been a substantial decrease in support for Democrats in Hispanic-majority cities in Berks County, Lehigh County, and Luzerne County, which are crucial battleground areas in this state.

According to Kornacki, Democratic support in Allentown dropped from 45 to 35 points between the 2012 and 2020 elections. Data from the last three presidential elections indicates that 54 percent of Allentown’s population is Hispanic.

“Take a look, here’s Allentown. Lehigh County, this has the highest concentration of Hispanics in Pennsylvania,” Kornacki went on to say during an appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “It’s a 54% Hispanic, and look at this, the trend has been toward Republicans. The state was moving toward the Democrats between ’16 and ’20, but in Allentown, Clinton won it by 42 [points] in ’16, fell down to 35 in 2020. This is an area, we’ve talked so much about the polls showing Trump making more inroads with Latino voters, this is the kind of place where the Trump folks think this trend can continue.”

Kornacki then focused on Hazleton, Pennsylvania, with a 63 percent Hispanic population, and examined previous election outcomes for this group. He also brought attention to Reading, a city where 67 percent of the population is Hispanic, and noted a significant decrease in Democratic support—from 64 points in 2012 to 45 points in 2020.

“Again, look at this trend. It was blue in 2012, Hazleton was for Obama. And then Trump comes along, he carries it by 5, he improves it to 11. Again, this is a kind of place where Trump folks think they can do better,” Kornacki added during the segment. “And again, this is very much a majority Hispanic city. Or Reading … you just take a look right here. Overwhelmingly Democratic, but from 2012, when Barack Obama won re-election, to 2020 when Biden carried Pennsylvania. That’s a drop of basically 20 points in the Democratic margin here in a heavily Hispanic city.”

“So the trend in the most Hispanic cities in Pennsylvania, as the state was getting more Democratic in 2020, they were becoming more Republican,” Kornacki said. In the 2020 election,

Biden received 50 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, while Trump received 48 percent. Trump won Luzerne County with 56 percent to 42 percent, as well as Berks County with 53 percent to 45 percent. Biden secured Lehigh County with 53 percent to 45 percent.


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