Political bettors are increasingly leaning towards former President Donald Trump for the November election, with odds favoring him.
Polymarket, which tracks online betting on election outcomes, shows Trump now receiving 51% support from bettors, while Vice President Kamala Harris has 47%.
This 4% lead for Trump is a slight decrease from the 5% advantage he held after a contentious Democratic National Convention last month. Despite this minor dip, Trump remains in a strong position. Prior to the DNC, he was trailing Harris 48% to 52%, indicating an eight-point net shift in his favor over the past few weeks.
Trump’s lead grew to 4% overnight. pic.twitter.com/nZJZbaD3Uu
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) September 3, 2024
Political bettors have clear predictions for most swing states, except Pennsylvania and Nevada—states that Trump won in 2016 but lost in his 2020 reelection bid.
Vital battleground states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District are currently leaning Republican. Meanwhile, the “blue wall” of midwestern states such as Wisconsin and Michigan is anticipated to stay in Harris’s column, according to current betting trends.
Over the Labor Day weekend, Harris and President Joe Biden held a joint rally in Pennsylvania, where they strongly criticized Trump for enacting policies detrimental to workers during his tenure.
Addressing concerns about the potential sale of U.S. Steel to a Japanese conglomerate, Harris publicly opposed the deal, asserting that the nation’s largest steel producer should stay under domestic ownership.
Their rally wasn’t without its awkward moments; notably, Biden recounted a meandering and somewhat unrelated tale about the 1906 election involving an accusation of murder against his great-grandfather.
Despite prevailing skepticism from bettors about his chances in Wisconsin and Michigan, the Trump campaign and its allies are intensifying their efforts in these states. Over the weekend, the Huffington Post reported that a pro-Trump political action committee launched digital ads aimed at Muslim voters in Michigan. These ads highlighted Harris’s criticism of pro-Palestinian protesters, leading to accusations of dirty politics from Democrats.
Prior to Biden’s decision to end his campaign, Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) had cautioned her party about the risks of neglecting Michigan.
Dingell told CNN in September a year ago that Michigan is not a blue state.
“It is purple. It is a very competitive state. And Donald Trump would do well in Michigan right now. The election’s a year away, we’re at a very volatile time, but I’m not taking Michigan for granted and I’m going to say I said that very strongly to many people,” she said.
